Anyone who saw Saddlers Supreme’s last run at Wetherby, will completely understand why I have tipped the horse today – anyone missed that run but has seen her previous 18 runs under rules, will think I‘ve lost the plot !
At Wetherby, racing from 10lb outside the handicap, she cruised round the field on the home turn and looked sure to bolt up.
However, her run flattened out up the home straight and she eventually finished fifth. That said, she was only beaten 6 lengths, so it a class 4 race, that was a very respectable effort.
Today she runs in a class 5 race, off a 3lb lower mark, with her jockey able to claim his full allowance of 7lb (so she is effectively the 10lb better off, than last time).
If she repeats her last run, I’ll be very surprised if she doesn’t win (unless Barney Curley has decided that Summersturm will win today !).
Therefore, the main question, is whether she will repeat the last run – or return to type…
Invariably, when faced with this question, I go looking through a horse’s previous form to try and find reasons why it could have improved last time out.
I did this with Saddlers Supreme, but in all honesty, I couldn’t find any compelling reasons. This is why she is a minimum bet today – if I could have found a decent reason or two (such as new trainer, ground, fitness, distance, tactics etc.) she would have been a much bigger bet.
All I could see, is that for her age, she is relatively lightly raced (she is 9 and has only run 18 times). Also, she has fallen/unseated on 5 on her 14 runs over hurdles – including 3 of the 5 prior to her last run.
It is possible that she is a late maturing type – who has also struggled to get to grips with jumping. If this is the case, then there is a chance that when the penny drops, she could improve significantly.
This is the theory that I am placing my trust in. It’s hardly water tight – but I do think it justifies a small bet at the best available 10/1.
0.5pt win Saddlers Supreme 10/1
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