Generally, it is my intention to tweet tips as soon as prices are issued (hence ‘early bird’). However, there will be occasions when I think that a horse that I fancy, has been put in too short and is therefore likely to drift. On these occasions, I will wait for a better time to strike – and that is what I have done with Fiendish Flame today…
Last night, Fiendish Flame was put in at a best price of 12/1 by the early bird bookmakers – and as low as 8/1 with B365…
It could be argued that was a fair price – and I wouldn’t have been too unhappy with it, but I thought it might drift…
The reasons are more to do with the opposition than they are with the horse itself – so I am comfortable backing a ‘drifter’ on this occasion…
It was kind of inevitable that Remember Now and Sure Josie Sure would be backed, bearing in mind their connections and the fact that they are both relatively unexposed.
I would certainly give both a good chance – particularly Remember Now – but he’s very short in the betting at 2/1…
I would rather take a chance with Fiendish Flame - a former decent chaser with Donald McCain who has his first run Jennie Candlish today.
At his best, Fiendish Flame was comfortably a 140+ rated horse – today he gets to run off a mark of 128. If Jennie Candlish has him fit and raring to go, I think he will take some stopping off that mark…
My enthusiasm is even greater because I was never really convinced with him as a chaser – he’s a bit on the small side and consequently can struggle with fences.
The other big plus with him is that he is a front runner – and Haydock is a front runners track. Furthermore, he could get an uncontested lead…
If this is the case, I can see him being very difficult to peg back – and that’s by horses trained by Henderson, Pipe or anyone else who cares to show up !!
0.5pt EW Fiendish Flame 16/1
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