29th November - Selection rationale

It’s a low key day tomorrow for NH racing, with just a couple of meetings scheduled for Southwell and Ayr respectively…
I say ‘scheduled’ because the Ayr meeting is actually in some doubt. The going is already soft and further heavy rain is expected overnight.
However, the prospect of significant additional rain, is the prime reason I have a tip for tomorrow. What I’m ideally after, is sufficient rain to make the going bottom-less – without there being enough to cause abandonment !!

Ayr 1:35

I think the early bird prices for this race were about right – provided the ground doesn’t deteriorate from it’s current ‘soft’.
However, deterioration is a distinct possibility – and if that occurs, I can see there being some changes in the market…
I don’t believe that heavy ground will help the chance of current favourite Premier Sagas. Firstly, he has never won (or indeed run) on anything worse than ‘soft’ and secondly, because he has a weight of 11st12lb to hump around. Generally, the heavier the going, the less weight you want to be carrying…
This being the case, the horses to concentrate on should be at the bottom of the handicap.
Ideally they should also be fit – and have shown their best form on heavy ground. Step forward Sibenek…
He won a race at Carlisle almost exactly 12 months ago, over the same distance as tomorrow’s race. The ground that day was bottom-less and Sibenek relished it. His previous wins in Ireland had also come on heavy ground, so it wasn’t surprising that he should be well suited by it.
He has only encountered heavy ground once since the Carlisle victory and that was when finishing runner–up to one of tomorrow’s opponents, Alexander Oats. On the revised terms and with a fitness advantage, Sibenek should have his measure tomorrow.
In summary, Sibenek is a reasonable bet, who will become a much better bet if the rains come (provided the meeting goes ahead !).
In that sense, he is a bit of a gamble – but at the odds available, one that I am happy to take.
Perhaps any readers in the south west of Scotland would be good enough to do a rain dancer this evening – though please be careful that you don’t get too carried away ;)

0.5pt win Sibenek 10/1